XRP News Today: Legal Setback Triggers XRP Price Slide, ETF Odds Plunge; BTC at $106k

SEC vs. Ripple Case: Judge Torres Ruling Sends Shockwaves

Judge Analisa Torres spooked investors on Thursday, June 26, delivering a crucial ruling in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple case. Judge Torres denied Ripple and the SEC’s second joint motion for an indicative ruling. The parties had requested an indicative ruling on settlement terms, including lifting the ban on XRP sales to institutional investors and lowering the penalty to $50 million.

Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty reacted to the ruling, stating:

“With this, the ball is back in our court. The Court gave us two options: dismiss our appeal challenging the finding on historic institutional sales—or press forward with the appeal. Stay tuned. Either way, XRP’s legal status as not a security remains unchanged. In the meantime, it’s business as usual.”

What’s Next for Ripple and the SEC?

Ripple has until August to decide whether to proceed with its cross-appeal, a crucial decision. If Ripple pursues its cross-appeal, the SEC may progress its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

In 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test, which concerns expectations of profits from the efforts of others. If the SEC successfully appeals the ruling, XRP would fall under the SEC’s watch. In a worst-case scenario, US exchanges could de-list XRP. De-listings would impact ETF issuer market access to XRP, potentially forcing the SEC to decline XRP-spot ETF applications.

Polymarket puts the odds of an XRP-spot ETF approval in 2025 at 78%, down from a pre-ruling peak of 98.2%.

Significantly, Ripple could take the case to the US Supreme Court of the SEC wins on appeal. In January 2024, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse commented on the case potentially reaching the Supreme Court, saying:

“The current Supreme Court, we’d love to see the Vegas odds on how that would go. They have not been friendly to regulators.”

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Appeal PLans and ETF Developments

XRP slid 3.76% on Thursday, June 26, following Wednesday’s 0.26% loss, closing at $2.1042. The token underperformed the broader market, which dropped 0.65% to a total crypto market cap of $3.23 trillion.

The near-term XRP price outlook hinges on Ripple’s plans for a cross-appeal, whether the SEC pursues its appeal, and XRP-spot ETF-related developments.

A breakout above $2.2 and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could pave the way to the June 16 high of $2.3389. Sustained buying pressure may bring the May high of $2.6553 into play. Conversely, a break below the 200-day EMA could enable the bears to target sub-$2 levels and the $1.9299 support level.

For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.

Bitcoin Snaps Three-Day Winning Streak

Judge Torres’ court ruling also pressured the broader crypto market, with bitcoin (BTC) ending a three-day winning streak. Responding to one crypto analyst, who noted the broader crypto market turning red on the Ripple case ruling, pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan called it ‘the Torres effect’.

Thursday’s market reaction to the court ruling weighed on retail investor sentiment. However, institutional demand remained robust, with the US BTC-spot ETF market eyeing a 13-day inflow streak.

According to Farside Investors, key inflows for June 26 included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $32.9 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $25.2 million.

With BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data pending, total US BTC-spot ETF inflows reached $63 million. Notably, the US BTC-spot ETF market may extend its net inflow streak to 13 sessions.

Whale and shark activity aligned with spot ETF flow trends, underscoring improving sentiment toward BTC. Market intelligence platform Santiment reported:

“The amount of whale & shark wallets holding at least 10 Bitcoin (currently a bit over $1.07M) is back to its highest level since March 12th. As markets have been volatile, smart money has accumulated on most retail panic sell cycles.”

ETF Store President Nate Geraci remarked on the current crypto landscape and market activity, summarizing the last 48 hours. Key highlights included:

• Republican lawmakers propose the full legal framework for crypto.
• Fed Chair Powell states the crypto industry is maturing.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to include crypto as assets for mortgages.

BTC Price Outlook: Trade developments, US Inflation, and ETF Flows

BTC fell 0.39% on June 26, partially reversing Wednesday’s 1.18% gain to close at $106,971.

The near-term price outlook hinges on several crucial drivers, including US inflation data, trade developments, the Middle East ceasefire, and ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Breach of Iran-Israel ceasefire, legislation setbacks, escalation in the US trade war, hotter US inflation, and ETF outflows. A combination of these may send BTC toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), exposing sub-$100,000 levels.
• Bullish Scenario: Iran-Israel ceasefire holds, bipartisan support for crypto bills, easing tariff risks, and ETF inflows. Under these scenarios, BTC could revisit its all-time high of $111,917.

What to Watch

Investors should look out for developments in the Ripple case, legislative updates, Middle East news, trade developments, and ETF flows. These factors remain critical for near-term price trends. They could determine if XRP or BTC revisits record highs.

See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head as legal and political risks evolve.