The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Payrolls, Fed Policy, and Mega-Cap Tech Strength

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets pushed to fresh all-time highs last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up about 5% year-to-date and surging 24% and 33% respectively from the April 8 lows.

This summer rally is driven by three clear catalysts: an easing of geopolitical tensions (and subsequent lower oil prices), a Fed that continues to signal lower interest rates are likely (albeit gradually), and the outsized rally in the mega-cap technology sector.

Geopolitical tensions eased following limited retaliatory action in the Middle East, which kept oil infrastructure intact and pushed WTI crude down 13% last week to around $65 per barrel, supporting lower headline inflation and consumer sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s June meeting and recent data point to the potential for twoWTI crude or more rate cuts by year-end, with Treasury yields moving lower across the curve.

Mega-cap technology and AI sectors continue to lead, delivering strong earnings and revenue growth while reaffirming capital expenditures in infrastructure and AI.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday (June 30)
• Progress Software (PRGS) earnings – est. $1.30 EPS (after close)
• Chicago PMI (June) – 13:45 GMT (forecast 42.7, prev. 40.5)
• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speaks – 14:00 GMT
• Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee speaks – 17:00 GMT

Tuesday (July 1)
• MSC Industrial (MSM) earnings – est. $1.30 EPS (before open)
• Fed Chair Powell speaks – 13:30 GMT
• S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (June) – 13:45 GMT (forecast 52.0, prev. 52.0)
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) – 14:00 GMT (forecast 48.8, prev. 48.5)
• JOLTS Job Openings (May) – 14:00 GMT (forecast 7.45M, prev. 7.39M)
• ISM Manufacturing Prices (June) – 14:00 GMT (forecast 70.2, prev. 69.4)
• Construction Spending m/m (May) – 14:00 GMT (forecast -0.1%, prev. -0.4%)
• RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism – tentative (forecast 50.1, prev. 49.2)
• Wards Total Vehicle Sales – all day (forecast 15.5M, prev. 15.7M)
• Constellation Brands (STZ) earnings – est. $3.31 EPS (after close)
• Greenbrier (GBX) earnings – est. $0.98 EPS (after close)

Wednesday (July 2)
• UniFirst (UNF) earnings – est. $2.09 EPS (before open)
• Challenger Job Cuts y/y – 11:30 GMT (prev. 47.0%)
• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (June) – 12:15 GMT (forecast 105K, prev. 37K)
• Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 GMT (prev. -5.8M)

Thursday (July 3)
• Average Hourly Earnings m/m (June) – 12:30 GMT (forecast 0.3%, prev. 0.4%)
• Non-Farm Employment Change (June) – 12:30 GMT (forecast 120K, prev. 139K)
• Unemployment Rate (June) – 12:30 GMT (forecast 4.3%, prev. 4.2%)
• Weekly Jobless Claims – 12:30 GMT (forecast 239K, prev. 236K)
• Trade Balance (May) – 12:30 GMT (forecast -$69.9B, prev. -$61.6B)
• S&P Global Final Services PMI (June) – 13:45 GMT (forecast 53.1, prev. 53.1)
• ISM Services PMI (June) – 14:00 GMT (forecast 50.8, prev. 49.9)
• Factory Orders m/m (May) – 14:00 GMT (forecast 7.9%, prev. -3.7%)
• Natural Gas Storage – 14:30 GMT (prev. 96B)
• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speaks – 15:00 GMT

Friday (July 4)
• Market closed for Independence Day

Central Bank Activity

Fed Chair Powell speaks Tuesday at 13:30 GMT following recent testimony underscoring labor market strength but indicating the Fed could consider rate cuts if conditions weaken.

Atlanta Fed’s Bostic and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee also speak this week, with markets monitoring for timing and pace of possible easing.

Technical Outlook

Dow Jones (Weekly): Closed 43,819.27 (+3.82%), above 52-week SMA (42,145.67). Resistance 45,073.63.

Nasdaq (Weekly): Closed 20,273.46 (+4.25%), above 52-week SMA (18,473.16). Record high close.

S&P 500 (Weekly): Closed 6,173.07 (+3.44%), above 52-week SMA (5,770.87). Record high close.

All three indexes are back above their 52-week moving averages, indicating momentum remains intact with resistance levels in focus for potential summer rally extensions.

Outlook

Equities enter a holiday-shortened, data-heavy week with momentum supported by easing oil prices, a Fed leaning toward cuts, and strong tech sector leadership.

The June jobs report (+120K expected, 4.3% unemployment forecast), ISM data, and Powell’s remarks will drive near-term direction, while tariff and trade updates remain potential volatility catalysts.

With inflation contained and the Fed inclined toward easing, dips may continue to offer positioning opportunities in quality U.S. equities during the summer rally.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.