BTC Price Forecast: BlackRock ETF Demand and Fed Signals Fuel Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin Eyes $112K on Fed Cut Bets and ETF Frenzy

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.2% on Saturday, June 28, building on Friday’s 0.15% gain and closing at $107,340. While trailing the broader market’s 0.59% rise, growing investor confidence is pushing BTC closer to its all-time high of $111,917.

Easing geopolitical tensions, rising bets on a Q3 Fed rate cut, and spot ETF inflows boosted BTC demand.

US Data Reveal Cracks in the Economy

Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report supported expectations of a Q3 Fed rate cut. While inflation edged higher, personal income and spending unexpectedly fell in May, suggesting a weaker consumption outlook.

Given private consumption contributes over 60% to the US economy, a pullback in disposable income and consumer spending could raise recession risks. Weaker spending may also dampen demand-driven inflationary pressures. Friday’s data followed a sharper-than-expected economic contraction in Q1 (-0.5% QoQ vs prelim. -0.2%).

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, this week’s data and Fed comments pushed the odds of a Q3 Fed rate cut up from 69.7% (June 20) to 91.4% (June 27). Several Fed speakers, including Susan Collins, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, and Michelle Bowman, signaled support for further monetary policy easing.

Could BTC retest record highs? US BTC-Spot ETF Market Extends Inflow Streak

Market expectations of a Q3 Fed policy move drove demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors, inflows skyrocketed. Key inflows for the week ending June 27 included:

• BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continued to dominate, with weekly net inflows of $1,310.9 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $504.5 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net inflows of $268.2 million.

The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its net inflow streak to 14 sessions, with total weekly net inflows of $2,214.8 million. After a cautious start to the month, total net inflows for June stand at $4,476.6 million, another solid showing after May’s inflows of $5,232.1 million. Spot ETF inflows drove BTC to a record high of $111,917 in May.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term price trajectory hinges on several key macro and market drivers:

• Middle East developments.
• Trade headlines.
• Legislative updates, including Bitcoin Act-related news.
• The upcoming US economic data and Fed cues.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing geopolitical tensions, dovish Fed rhetoric, bipartisan support for crypto bills, upbeat US data, and ETF inflows may drive BTC toward $111,917.
• Bearish Scenario: Renewed geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed signals, legislative roadblocks, US recession jitters, or ETF outflows could push BTC below $100,000.

For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A breakout above the June 26 high of $108,402 could pave the way to $110,000. A sustained move through $110,000 may support a move through $111,917, bringing $115,000 into sight.
• On the downside, a drop below $105,000 and the 50-day EMA could expose sub-$100,000 levels. Intensifying selling pressure may enable the bears to target the 200-day EMA.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.63 suggests BTC could climb to the record high of $111,917 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Trails as BTC Dominates Flows

Turning to ethereum (ETH), ETH trades above the 50-day EMA while remaining below the 200-day EMA. The EMAs send bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals. While BTC spot ETFs drew $2.2B, ETH funds lagged with sub-$300 million inflows.

• Upside target: A breakout above the 200-day EMA would support a move toward the June high of $2,879. A move through $2,879 could open the door to retesting the $2,815 resistance level.
• On the downside, a drop below the 50-day EMA would bring the $2,308 support level into play. If ETH falls below $2,308, the bears could target the June low of $2,119, with $2,000 being the next key psychological support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.42 indicates ETH could drop to the June low of $2,119 before entering oversold territory (RSI< 30).

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.