Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Rangebound Gold, Breakout Silver as Fed Decision Nears

Market Overview

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, slipping below the $3,400 level as the U.S. dollar regained momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. At last check, spot gold (XAU/USD) was trading near $3,385, down 0.11% on the day. Despite heightened geopolitical risk and soft U.S. data, gold’s appeal diminished as the dollar index advanced, weighing on dollar-denominated commodities.

“Even with rising geopolitical uncertainty, investors are prioritizing liquidity,” said a senior strategist at Mitsui Global. “That’s keeping gold in check for now.”

Silver (XAG/USD), meanwhile, held firmer, trading at $37.24 after touching an intraday high of $37.26. The white metal continues to benefit from robust industrial demand and remains supported by persistent safe-haven flows, particularly as rate expectations soften.

Fed Policy Outlook Takes Center Stage Amid Weak Data

Traders are focused on the Fed’s policy announcement later today, especially after a string of disappointing economic releases. U.S. retail sales dropped 0.9% month-over-month in May, while industrial production contracted 0.2%, marking its second decline in three months. Year-over-year retail sales slowed to 3.3%, down from April’s 5.0%.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in roughly 44 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.403%, while real yields dropped five basis points to 2.103%, reflecting growing expectations of monetary easing.

Central Banks Remain Bullish on Gold Reserves

In the longer term, gold remains supported by structural demand. The World Gold Council’s latest survey revealed that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves within the next 12 months. This trend reinforces a stable demand floor for bullion, especially as global interest in de-dollarization grows.

Additionally, despite the short-term headwinds, analysts at Goldman Sachs reaffirmed their forecast for gold to reach $3,700/oz by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by central bank buying and lower real interest rates.

As the Federal Reserve prepares to signal its outlook, investors are bracing for volatility. But for now, gold and silver continue to walk the fine line between policy signals and geopolitical noise.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains range-bound between $3,373 and $3,400 ahead of the Fed decision, while silver eyes $37.54 after breaking key resistance, supported by a strong trendline and 50-EMA momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering near $3,382 after failing to break above the $3,400 resistance zone. The price remains range-bound between $3,373 and $3,400, with sideways movement indicating indecision.

While a rising trendline from June 11 supports the broader trend, bulls are struggling to reclaim control above the 50-EMA ($3,389), which has flattened, indicating neutral momentum.

A sustained break above $3,400 could open the path toward $3,423 and $3,448, but failure to hold above $3,373 trendline support risks a move down to $3,355 or $3,338.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $37.23, edging higher after breaking above the $37.01 resistance level. The price structure shows a strong bullish impulse following consolidation above the 50-EMA ($36.58), which continues to act as dynamic support.

The recent breakout is supported by higher lows and a well-defined ascending trendline, suggesting sustained bullish momentum. If price maintains strength above $37.01, the next resistance to watch lies at $37.54, followed by $37.92.

On the downside, a close back below $36.79 would indicate weakness, possibly triggering a retest of $36.20. The broader uptrend remains intact as long as silver holds above the rising trendline and the 200-EMA ($35.39), which provides a major structural floor.