Speculation about the US government seizing Ripple’s XRP in Escrow for national reserves potentially spooked investors. XRP slid 2.67% on Saturday, June 21, following Friday’s 2.14% loss, closing at $2.0636. The token underperformed the broader market, which fell 1.68% to a total market cap of $3.1 trillion.
Crypto analyst John Squire suggested the US government could take Ripple’s XRP held in Escrow and hold the seized tokens as a national reserve. However, pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan dismissed the claim, simply stating, “No, it won’t.”
However, XRP extended its losing streak to three sessions on June 21 as investors awaited Judge Analisa Torres’ pivotal ruling on settlement terms in the SEC vs. Ripple case. Ripple and the SEC filed a second joint motion on June 12, requesting an indicative ruling to lift the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and reducing the $125 million penalty.
Judge Torres rejected the first filing, citing procedural errors and inadequate arguments that a settlement serves the public and institutional investors.
Since Judge Torres’s first ruling, XRP tumbled from $2.5712 to Saturday’s low of $1.9998, underscoring market anxiety over the looming decision.
Judge Torres denied the first motion within seven days, and the silence since the second filing has left XRP in limbo.
If Judge Torres delivers a favorable indicative ruling, Ripple would withdraw its cross-appeal, and the SEC would drop its appeal. The SEC appealed against the Programmatic Sales ruling, where Judge Analisa Torres surmised that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
An end to the Ripple case could expedite the approval of pending XRP-spot ETF applications. Spot ETF inflows may send the token to record highs. On the other hand, if the SEC pursues its appeal, XRP may face intense selling pressure. In a worst-case scenario, a successful appeal may lead to:
XRP’s near-term price trajectory hinges on Judge Torres’ ruling and XRP-spot ETF-related updates.
Crucially, a favorable court ruling could drive XRP toward its all-time high of $3.5505. A resolution to the Ripple case may also expedite -spot ETF approvals, another crucial price catalyst. However, the token could tumble towards $1.5 if Judge Torres rejects the renewed joint filing or the settlement terms.
After this week’s extended losses, XRP trades below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bearish signals.
A breakout above the 200-day EMA may support a move toward $2.2 and the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA may open the door to retesting the May 12 high of $2.6553. If the SEC drops its appeal and approves XRP-spot ETF applications, the token could reclaim $3 and target the 2025 high of $3.3999.
On the downside, a drop below $2 could expose the $1.9299 support level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37.65, suggesting XRP may drop toward the $1.9299 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI< 30).
XRP’s trajectory depends on legal developments and external events. The token had previously rallied to a 2025 high of $3.3999 in the hope of the SEC dropping its appeal and President Trump’s pro-crypto agenda. However, broader market events, including tariffs, the Iran-Israel conflict, and Fed policy cues, continue affecting overall market sentiment.
In the near term, Judge Torres’ ruling, legislative-related news, geopolitical risks, and ETF-related developments will remain key drivers of XRP’s performance.
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