A crucial June 16 deadline in the SEC vs. Ripple case is looming, and investors are getting edgy about the absence of court filings. On May 15, Judge Analisa Torres denied the SEC’s request for an indicative ruling on vacating the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and reducing the $125 million penalty. The withdrawal of Ripple’s cross-appeal and the SEC’s appeal hinges on Judge Torres granting the proposed settlement terms.
Notably, on April 16, the 2nd Circuit granted a joint motion to hold the SEC’s appeal in abeyance. The court delivered its ruling on the April 16 deadline for Ripple to file its appeal-related reply brief.
Uncertainty about the timing of a second request for an indicative ruling on the settlement has weighed on XRP demand. There are also concerns about whether Judge Torres will reverse her Final Judgment on the injunction. The key issue is whether Ripple and the SEC will proceed with their appeals if Judge Torres rejects the settlement request a second time.
XRP has fallen 14% since Judge Torres rejected the first joint motion. In contrast, the broader crypto market has fallen 1.2% over the same period, highlighting how legal uncertainty has disproportionately pressured XRP prices.
Pro-crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli remarked on the SEC’s silence and the 2nd Circuit’s likely response, stating:
“20 days later, no refile yet by the SEC and Ripple in district court and the June deadline for the status update in the 2nd Circuit looms large. Expect the refile before Judge Torres to happen by then. If there is nothing pending before Torres when the parties file the status report, the 2nd Circuit only has Torres’ denial of the first request and will restart the briefing. If a motion is pending before Torres at the time of the 6/16 status report, the 2nd Circuit will likely push it out another 60 days.”
The critical legal hurdle remains whether the SEC can convincingly argue that the settlement serves both public interest and institutional investors. Judge Torres rejected the original motion due to procedural shortcomings and because it failed to demonstrate the public benefit.
Rispoli remarked on the next steps:
“More importantly, what is the next step? The message by Torres was clear that both parties need to beg for forgiveness. Ripple will say whatever to get it done but how much public groveling is the SEC willing to do? And how much groveling will be authorized? We have 12 days to find out.”
While a court ruling could come at any time, continued silence may leave XRP in legal limbo pending a second joint filing.
XRP dropped 1.96% on June 4, partially reversing Tuesday’s 2.19% rally to close at $2.2018. Notably, the token underperformed the broader market, which fell 0.64% to a total crypto market cap of $3.24 trillion.
XRP’s near-term outlook depends on legal-related updates and spot ETF-related news.
A break above $2.50 could support a move toward the May 12 high of $2.6553. A sustained breakout from $2.6553 may bring $3 and the record high of $3.5505 into play. Conversely, a drop below $2.1 could expose XRP to sub-$2 for the first time since April 11.
For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.
While XRP struggled with legal uncertainty, bitcoin (BTC) faced selling pressure as legislative progress stalled, triggering profit-taking. State-level support for BTC and altcoins has slowed despite isolated approvals, potentially impacting investor appetite.
On May 21, the US state of Texas passed the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Investment Act. However, state governor Greg Abbott has yet to sign the bill. Amendments from the House require either Senate approval or a conference committee resolution. The Senate had previously objected to a clause permitting private crypto donations to the reserve.
Broader legislative backing could still come via the federal-level Bitcoin Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act in March 2025. The bill proposes that the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year lock-up period. If passed, this bill could trigger a significant rally in BTC.
According to the Bitcoin Reserve Monitor:
Despite legislative uncertainty, US BTC-spot ETF inflows helped limit losses on June 4. On June 3, issuers reported $375.1 million in net inflows, snapping a three-day outflow streak. Sentiment toward Trump’s trade policies and the Fed’s rate path had weighed on spot ETF demand before Tuesday’s inflows. However, flow trends on June 4 reflect investor caution as US-China trade talks and the US Jobs Report loom. According to Farside Investors, key flows for June 4 included:
Excluding pending flow data for BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total outflows of $197 million.
BTC dropped 0.65% on June 4, following Tuesday’s 0.14% loss to close at $104,755.
The near-term price trajectory hinges on legislative updates, US data, Fed policy cues, trade developments, and ETF flows.
Potential scenarios:
Investors should monitor Ripple case-related updates, US crypto legislation, key US labor market data, and Fed signals. These factors will continue driving sentiment across XRP and BTC, potentially dictating whether the tokens revisit recent highs.
Explore analyst forecasts on where XRP and BTC may head next as legal and political factors unfold.
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