The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, in a relatively well-defined trading range. At this point, we are also reacting to the new tariffs coming form the US on the EU, starting June 1.
The silver market has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Friday in the early hours, as we continue to look at the $33 level as a potential fair value level. We have been consolidating between $32 on the bottom and $34 at the top. So, it does make a certain amount of sense that we just continue to chop overall. There has been an announcement of a 50 % tariff on the European Union by Donald Trump starting June 1st, and that had the markets moving pretty quickly.
But at this point in time, I think you have a situation where the market is probably going to react less and less to these things. Also, you have to pay close attention to the US dollar because if it starts to get hit, that actually could help silver. While silver is a precious metal, it’s also an industrial one. So, you have the cross current of the possibility of a lack of demand for silver by industry, if we do in fact see an expanded trade issue.
Nonetheless, instead of overthinking it, what I would do is I would look at this as a range bound market until it’s not. Short term traders continue to short at the $34 level and go long at the $32 level. Eventually we will break out and I do think that direction is probably higher.
But there’s nothing that’s 100 % certain in trading, so you have to treat it as a possibility that we break the other way. Position size is crucial in silver and timing obviously will be important as well, if you can drop down to the short timeframes, you may do fairly well. But you should also keep in mind that the futures market on Monday has limited trading hours due to the fact that it’s Memorial Day in the United States.
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Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.