Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Volatility Rises Amid Middle East Risk and U.S. Inventory Build

Market Overview

WTI crude futures surged past $63 per barrel on Wednesday as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked fears of supply disruptions. Market participants are particularly concerned about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for roughly 20% of global oil and fuel exports from Gulf producers.

This geopolitical uncertainty is compounded by stalled international ceasefire efforts.

However, rising U.S. crude inventories—up 2.5 million barrels last week after a 4.3 million-barrel build prior—have somewhat offset supply fears. Natural gas markets remain volatile, mirroring oil’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments and shifting global trade dynamics.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading near $3.366 after a sharp rebound from $3.101 ran into resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($3.370). Price remains below the key supply zone near $3.453, which also aligns with the 200-EMA at $3.407—keeping the broader downtrend in check.

The retracement is currently testing the 38.2% level ($3.319), a typical support zone during corrective pullbacks. A break below this could open the door to $3.277 and $3.235 (50% and 61.8% fib levels). On the flip side, reclaiming $3.370 and closing above the 200-EMA would be a bullish signal.

Short-term traders will want to see how price behaves at these fib zones—momentum has slowed, but the structure remains constructive unless $3.277 fails.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is holding near $62.83 after a sharp move higher earlier in the session stalled just below resistance at $63.84. Price remains supported by the ascending trendline from May 6 and the 50-EMA at $62.23. The 200-EMA at $61.59 adds further strength to the bullish case.

Price structure is still favorable, with higher lows intact, but the lack of follow-through above $63.80 leaves the breakout unconfirmed. If crude holds above $62.70, a secondary push higher could retest $63.84 and potentially target $64.46.

A break below $62.70 could open the door for a pullback toward $61.49. Traders will be watching whether the current consolidation develops into a continuation pattern or signals a short-term top.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is hovering near $66.14 after briefly spiking toward $66.77 resistance before pulling back. The chart shows a clean uptrend supported by higher lows and a rising trendline, reinforced by both the 50-EMA at $65.50 and the 200-EMA at $64.76.

Price recently broke above a consolidation zone around $65.63, and as long as it holds above that level, bulls may attempt another push toward $67.48. Momentum remains mildly positive, but the early signs of rejection near $66.77 could trigger a short-term pullback.

If $65.63 fails, the next support to watch is $64.79. Overall, structure favors the upside, but price action in the next few candles will confirm whether bulls are truly ready to retest the upper range.