Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising Geopolitical Risk Fuels Energy Market Volatility

Market Overview

WTI crude futures surged over 2% to $75.90 per barrel on Monday, reaching their highest level since January, as rising geopolitical tensions renewed concerns over energy supply disruptions.

Market anxiety has escalated around the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil shipments, amplifying fears of a potential slowdown in Middle Eastern exports.

The prospect of reduced output or restricted transit routes has strengthened crude prices and added upward pressure to natural gas, with traders bracing for volatility amid elevated risk premiums across global energy markets. Broader uncertainty continues to shape short-term forecasts for oil and gas.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) pulled back sharply after topping near $4.12, snapping its multi-day uptrend within the ascending channel. Price is now hovering near $3.89, just below the 50 EMA at $3.95, with short-term structure looking weaker. The selloff broke channel support decisively, and the recovery has so far stalled beneath prior intraday support at $3.91–$3.92, now acting as resistance.

The 200 EMA at $3.82 is the next key level to watch if sellers push further. A bounce above $3.95 could help bulls reclaim momentum, but until then, the trend has flipped neutral to corrective.

While the broader uptrend remains intact, short-term sentiment favors consolidation or a deeper pullback if $3.82 gives way.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude USOIL is easing off its recent high of $77.09, slipping to around $74.63 as it tests support at the $74.00 pivot. Price is caught between the 50 EMA at $74.01 and the 200 EMA down at $71.22, both acting as dynamic trend guides. The recent rejection candle near $77 suggests short-term exhaustion, while the rising trendline from last week remains intact.

If $74.00 holds, bulls may eye a return to $75.70 and $77.09. But a close below $74.00 would expose the next support at $72.30. So far, higher lows continue to support the broader trend, but this consolidation phase looks fragile.

Traders are watching $74.00 closely, it’s the technical line separating continuation from correction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is holding steady near $78.27 after pulling back from a session high at $80.24, where price met trendline resistance inside a rising wedge structure. The pullback found initial footing near $77.24, aligning with the 50 EMA at $77.21, a level bulls have defended consistently over the past week. As long as Brent holds above this zone, the uptrend remains intact.

The 200 EMA at $73.78 is rising steadily, reinforcing longer-term bullish structure. A break above $80.24 could expose $81.88 next.

On the downside, a close below $77.24 would challenge the ascending trendline and could trigger a retest of $75.43. The structure favors continuation, but momentum has cooled, and price action is looking for confirmation.