The past week has been tough for gold, which makes a lot of sense, as the market has seen a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which takes some of the “risk off” attitude out of the markets. Furthermore, the equities markets are rallying, so people are looking for other assets than gold.
The gold market has plunged during the course of the week, which is not a huge surprise considering that we’ve seen a ceasefire in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, so therefore it took off some of the risk premium in the market right now. All things being equal, though, I think this is a market that eventually finds a reason to bounce and go higher. The $3,200 level is more likely than not going to continue to be a massive floor in this market, and I think you have to look at it through that prism. It’s a large round psychologically significant figure that has shown itself to be supported previously and therefore, I’m keeping an eye on that level more than anything else.
If we were to break down below the $3,200 level, then I think you have a potential move down to the $3,000 level where I think there’s even more support. On the upside, the $3,500 level continues to be a bit of a ceiling and breaking that obviously would be very bullish, but right now I just don’t see that as being very likely, at least not in the short term. If we do break above there though, the $300 range then opens up the possibility of a move to the $3,800 level, based on the “measured move.” Ultimately, I still have a bullish bias longer-term, but we are going to have to find another reason to get bullish momentum going.
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Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.