The gold market fell a bit over the past week, as we continue to see a lot of noise and resistance near the $3500 level. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to consolidate overall, as we have seen for several weeks now.
Gold has fallen pretty significantly during the course of the week, but we are still very much in the same range that we have been in between $3,500 and $3,200. So really at this point in time, I don’t read too much into this other than we are in the midst of working off some of that excess from that massive move higher. The market really at this point in time has been in a parabolic move since the end of 2023, maybe even as early as summer of 2023, which is something you should respect in your analysis.
So, a little bit of a pause going back and forth in this general vicinity would make a certain amount of sense, but I still believe in buying dips. And if we can break above the $3,500 level, then we could go to the $3,800 level based on this consolidation region and the so-called measured move. A breakdown below the $3,200 level could open up a move to the 3,000 level, but I don’t really think that is likely to happen due to the fact that we have so many geopolitical issues at the moment that I just can’t imagine a world in which gold is sold off drastically. Although there will be an occasional knee-jerk reaction. For example, if we get good news out of the Middle East with Israel and Iran, that could very well cause a little bit of a drop, but I think that would be short-term at best.
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Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.